Volume 3, Number 162
'There's a Jewish story everywhere'

Sunday-Monday, July 26-27, 2009


Israelis would accept settlement freeze on both Israelis and Palestinians; prefer Palestinian autonomy to sovereignty

By Dr. Aaron Lerner

KFAR SAVA, Israel (Press Release)—A poll conducted last Sunday through Tuesday by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute (headed by Professor Yitzchak Katz) finds Israeli Jews believe (70%:15%) that Israel's interests are best served by a Palestinian autonomy rather than a sovereign Palestinian state (72%:16% among Kadima voters).

The poll also found most (62%:27%) believe that PA leader Mahmoud Abbas wants to ultimately replace Israel rather than establish a Palestinian state next to it and that future Palestinian leaders won't honor agreements he signs (58%:12%).

The repondents also gave overwhelming support (71%:20%) for PM Netanyahu insisting on a Palestinian construction freeze should Israelaccept a Jewish construction freeze (Labor Party voters 62%:24% for Palestinian freeze). New settlement construction was seen as either moreor equally important as construction in the Negev and Galilee by 45% as compared to 48% who favored Negev-Galilee construction.

The poll, carried out a week before the arrival of a number of American officials to the region, also found that the public rejects the proposition that Israel can rely on international security guarantees in the event of a withdrawal while a plurality maintain that there is no practical difference
between the commitment America already has to Israel's security and a written commitment it might be provided within the framework of a future

The poll also found that most ( 61%) think poorly of Israelis who encourage foreign countries to pressure Israel to adopt the policies they advocate.

With regard to the importance of the "demographic problem", the poll found that Israeli Jews (72%:17%) believe it is an important factor for Israeli decision makers dealing in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The telephone poll of a representative sample of 526 adult Israeli Jews, was commissioned by Independent Media Review & Analysis (IMRA) and has a survey error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Detailed results follow:

Where is it more important in your opinion to build and establish new Jewish communities today: in the territories of Judea and Samaria or the Negev and Galilee?
08% Judea and Samaria
37% Both to same extent
45% Judea and Samaria + Both to same extent
48% Negev and Galilee
07% Other replies

In your opinion should Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu insist that thePalestinians also freeze all

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new construction in the territories of Judea and Samaria, in order to prevent new facts in the area, in the case that such a freeze also applies to Israel?
Yes 71% No 20% Other replies 9%

What do you think is the ultimate goal of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and other leaders acting to establish a Palestinian state: a Palestinian state that exists next to the State of Israel or a Palestinian state that will ultimately exist in place of the State of Israel?
Next to Israel 27% replace Israel 62% Other replies 11%

To what extent do you think that the Palestinian commitment of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) also commits other Palestinian leaders in the future?
31% Not at all
27% Doesn't commit
58% Total no
18% So-so
08% Commits
04% Commits greatly
12% Total commits
12% Other replies

According to experts, the "demographic problem", according to which in the future there could be a non-Jewish majority in the State of Israel, could reach critical levels in decades, and there are experts who maintain that this won't happen at all. Do you think that the "demographic problem" should be an important or marginal factor for Israeli decision makers dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Marginal 17% Important 72% Other replies 11%

What do you think better serves Israeli interests: a sovereign Palestinian state or a Palestinian autonomy in which the Palestinians control their daily lives but their borders and airspace are under Israeli control?
Sovereign Palestinian state 15% Palestinian autonomy 70% Other replies 15%

What do you think about Israelis who encourage foreign countries to applypressure on Israel so that it will adopt the policies they advocate?
Negative 61% Positive 4% Depends in the situation 26% Other replies 9%

There are those proposing that Israel be provided with international security guarantee in return for withdrawal from the territories of Judea and Samaria. Do you think that Israel can rely on such guarantees?
No 64% Yes 9% Depends on their nature 18% Other replies 9%

When dealing with international guarantees, do you think that there is a practical difference between the American commitment today towards the security of the State of Israel and a different formal American commitment it might give within the framework of a future agreement?
No difference 42% Different 30% Other replies 28%

Dr. Aaron Lerner is Director of IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis) in Kfar Sava, Israel

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