2005-10--20 Bush-Abbas

By Ira Sharkansky

Some years ago, one of my Palestinian students described Yassir Arafat as a "dead man walking." We saw how far he could walk: to the edge of his headquarters building, until the day he was bundled into a helicopter and went for his last ride to Paris.

I fear Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazzan) is shuffling in Arafat's footsteps.

Today he was welcomed at the White House. The President had some nice words to say about him, and reiterated the oft-said comments about Israel's obligations. But what else was Bush to do? He had invited Abbas some time ago to mark the new opportunities created by Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. Bush could not decently uninvite Abbas despite what has happened since the withdrawal, without losing a few more points among Arabs and Muslims (and he does not have too many to lose).. So Bush allowed his guest to take a few steps on the White House grounds, and expressed himself in a way that would not cause embarrassment.

Bush is no longer in a hurry to produce his "two democracies living side by side." When asked about a timetable for the creation of a Palestinian state, he said that it would not necessarily happen during his presidency. Such a lack of confidence is unusual for politicians who want credit quickly.

What has happened on the ground where it counts over the last couple of months is not contributing to Bush's desire or Abbas' political health. Two drive-by shootings this week killed three Israelis and wounded others. Abbas condemned the actions (Arafat always condemned killing), but a group affiliated with Abbas' own political movement claimed credit. The story in Gaza since the Israeli withdrawal is almost daily violence among Palestinian groups. Abbas speaks about bringing all the groups all into the tent, but they do not seem inclined to come without their weapons. Sometimes they fire those weapons at, or even within the Authority's tents. The Palestinians themselves report that more Palestinians are being killed by Palestinians than by Israelis.

Israel has been doing its best to make sure that the West Bank tents will not be too crowded. Since the spurt of violence after the withdrawal from Gaza, it has added more than 700 individuals to its stock of prisoners. Commentators say that Israel is aiding the moderates in the coming Palestinian elections by locking up a sizeable percentage of the nonmoderate activists.

Israel responded to the drive-by shootings by closing the main roads to Palestinian private cars. Palestinians can move between the major cities by public transportation only. The army is also reactivating a number of roadblocks it had left open during the recent period of relative quiet.

The actions have brought criticism from the American State Department, but last night we saw pictures of the blockages in place on the roads feeding into the main route. It will complicate travel Nablus south to Ramallah and on to Bethlehem and Hebron.

How long will this last? Maybe not forever, but meanwhile it weakens Abbas and his government.

This afternoon the chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee said on Israeli radio that it is time to treat Abbas like Arafat. Abbas speaks a more decent line than Arafat, the MK said, but like Arafat he does not move seriously to curtail violence. This Member of Knesset is somewhat to the right of the center in Likud, but he is not an extremist. On the same program, a Labor Party Member of Knesset said that Abbas must move against the violence in his regime, and that Israel must continue to act as long as he does not.

These two Members of Knesset are closer to the action than George W. Bush. Neither has a host's obligation to be decent to a guest whose invitation seems to have been made unfortunate by events.

I continue to wish for something good from Abbas before he is bundled off to Paris or somewhere else, but I am past expecting it.

Sharkansky is a member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem