2007-01-09-Peretz

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—Amir Peretz is in trouble. The former head of the Labor Federation led the Labor Party to another embarrassment in the most recent Knesset election. What had always been one of the two major parties, won only 16 percent of the vote. Nonetheless, Labor was the second largest party in a setting of widely scattered votes, and Peretz demanded a big job. He wanted to be finance minister, but the prime minister would not hand over the country's economy to one of its last outspoken socialists. The foreign ministry was not suitable for a man who could not deliver a speech in English, so the defense ministry was the only top slot available.

Commentators groaned. Peretz had no experience in defense, other than his undistinguished service as a draftee years ago. He had the bad luck of a two-front war within months of his appointment. The results were not a heroic victory. Israelis had been spoiled by the 1967 war to expect something in biblical proportions. But they had done that well only in the war of 1967. Various commissions and committees are still at work figuring out what went wrong this time, and what leading figures may have to go home in shame. Meanwhile, up to 75 percent of Labor Party members are responding to polls that they do not want Amir Peretz to remain as defense minister.

Peretz made other mistakes. When naming the Knesset members who would serve as Labor's ministers in Olmert's government, he did not select two of the most qualified individuals: an economics professor who had resigned as president of Ben Gurion University to run for the Knesset at Peretz's urging; and a former commanding officer of the Israeli Navy. Guess which Labor members of Knesset have been leading a revolt against Amir Peretz?

Peretz also turned a cold shoulder to former commanding officer of the IDF general staff and then prime minister Ehud Barak. Barak's standing in Labor and among Israelis generally is not entirely positive. The unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon was a key feature of his policy as prime minister, and that encouraged Hezbollah to the point where it provoked this past summer's war. Then Barak led Labor to a defeat in a Knesset election. In any case, Barak has returned to Israeli politics, and is among the several Labor Party figures campaigning for Peretz's job.

As one candidate after another announced his quest, Peretz lunged dramatically, but not all that deftly. He announced a new peace initiative with respect to the Palestinians; and froze the scheduled extension of the security barrier into the northern Negev, in order to protect the habitat of a desert antelope.

Both were moves to what he hopes is a constituency in the left wing of the Labor Party. The peace initiative brought forth cynicism verging on ridicule. The timing of this initiative signaled Peretz's desperation to come up with something. The prime minister is already on record as telling Peretz that diplomacy is not part of the defense job. And there may be no Palestinian capable of talking peace with Israel. All of their leaders are much busier fighting one another in the streets of Gaza and the West Bank.

The freezing of the security barrier will get Peretz the votes of antelopes, and maybe a few from Israelis more concerned about nature than anything else. But it will not sit well with those who see the barrier as crucial to Israel's defense, and are willing to inconvenience some desert creatures for the sake of themselves and their loved ones.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is hardly in better shape. There are no declared opponents within his party wanting to unseat him, but his poll standings are down in the range of Peretz's. A recent survey found his foreign minister (Tzipi Livni) polling twice his support in a question that asked about the most desirable candidate for prime minister, and both fell substantially below Benyamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has resurrected and refurbished himself, thanks largely to speaking patriotically and being out of office during the recent war.

Currently the prime minister is visiting China. He said that he traveled in order to persuade the Chinese to work forcefully against the Iranian nuclear program. Prospects for that seem dim. The Chinese do a lot of business with Iran, including the transfer of military technology, and have joined with the Russians in opposing serious sanctions. Moreover, the schedule of Olmert's first day there suggest another agenda, or perhaps none at all. There were visits to the Great Wall, the Olympic Village, a demonstration agricultural station created by Israelis, and a meeting with the Ministry of Trade and Commerce.

It may be better for the prime minister in China than in Israel. One news program reported that he will be facing criminal investigations upon his return, concerning personnel appointments and political favoritism in economic decisions. The attorney general's office said that it was not yet ready to start police questioning of the prime minister, but it is considering the possibility. Not yet touching him, but close, is a police inquiry into manipulation of income tax assessments. A prominent figure, arrested and released on bail pending further questioning, is a woman who has served as a close aide of Olmert when he was mayor of Jerusalem, finance minister, and now as prime minister.

Do not let the news discourage a visit. The weather is good.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.