By A.M. Goldstein

HAIFA —The former head of Israel 's Security Coordinating Committee for dealing with the Palestinian Authority, Col. (Res.) Moshe Elad, yesterday painted a gloomy picture of the PA's immediate future.

"Whether the referendum that [PA chairman] Abu Mazen {Mahmoud Abbas} proposes takes place or doesn't take place, the situation in the Palestinian Authority will only escalate and might lead to a blood bath," he stated.

Elad, a former military governor of Jenin and of Bethlehem , was no more sanguine about Israel 's future.  No matter what stand Israel takes, he is pessimistic that any good will come out of it for the Jewish State.

"If the prisoners' document is accepted, Israel will be required to pay the price, to release prisoners, to make more concessions," he said.  "And if Hamas's position comes about," he continued, "it will cost Israel dearly."  The world will expect Israel to change its stance in the wake of Hamas's seeming recognition of Israel , he believes.

Elad, who today is studying the Palestinian authority as a research associate with the University of Haifa 's National Security Studies Center , says Abu Mazen has been plotting to change the government since Fatah lost in the elections to the Palestinian legislature last January.

Abu Mazen, he pointed out, wears two hats.  He is chairman of the Palestinian Authority.  But he is also chairman of the Fatah organization.  And the humiliation that the latter suffered tops anything else for him as Rais. 

So far as the PA chairman's is concerned, his timing for action is excellent, Elad remarked. "Public opinion in the territories is appropriate, and there is no doubt that the referendum will succeed," the Israeli analyst states.

The Palestinian public, he ventures, will forget what led them to run Fatah out of office in the first place.  And Abu Mazen is ready to do anything to bring about a change in the PA's economic and social situation, the new University of Haifa researcher adds.

If the referendum does not pass, Elad expects Abu Mazen to resign, and this will lead to chaos.  But even if the PA chairman does win, Elad sees difficult confrontations and even a blood bath in the territories.  Hamas, he warns, "will claim that the government was taken from them undemocratically, stolen right from under their nose."

Another violent scenario the former military coordinator foresees may occur if Hamas decides to leave the game before the referendum.  Then, he says, Abu Mazen might try for an insurrection with the help of Fatah's security apparatus.  He has 50,000 armed loyalists who are ready to seize power by force, according to Elad. 

If Hamas breaks off all contact, he says, Abu Mazen will have no choice but to set up an emergency regime, to impose a curfew, carry out arrests, and seize key junctions in the territories.

 A.M. Goldstein is the English language editor for the University of Haifa's Department of External Affairs.