By A.M. Goldstein

HAIFA—"The death of Zarqawi signals the beginning of the end of the al-Qaida organization and of Sunni rebellion in Iraq ."

One of the world's leading experts on Iraq , Prof. Amatzia Baram of the University of Haifa , made this prediction today after learning of Zarqawi's death in an American air strike.  Zarqawi was the terror organization's number one man in Iraq and a sworn loyalist to Osama bin Laden.

According to Baram, who has advised the White House on Iraq , the ending of the rebellion and the terrorist organizations will still take a number of years and there will still be heavy casualties.  But the end is in sight.

"The blow that al-Qaida took today is a heavy one, but not mortal," Baram cautioned, explaining that Zarqawi was mainly a symbol.  "Nevertheless, we are talking about a very important symbol who had great influence on the insurgents' morale.  They received their inspiration from him," Baram said.

"Organizationally, too, Zarqawi was the most efficient executor of mass terror attacks, especially against the Shiites, with car bombs and suicide bombers."

Baram added that the Jordan-born Zarqawi's elimination was also a blow to the quiet but extensive support that the terrorist had in the Sunni Muslim world.  "I hope," the Iraqi expert said, "that this will lead to some realism in the Muslim world about the chances of success that terror will have as a political instrument although it is not at all sure it will."

Director of the recently inaugurated Center for Iran and Gulf Studies at the University of Haifa , Baram expects bin Laden to use the death of his most senior man in Iraq as a lever to carry out more terror attacks.  "Zarqawi's death hurts bin Laden, and we can soon see bin Laden describing Zarqawi as a "Shahid," or martyr.  He will try to exploit his memory to intensify al-Qaida activity.

In Baram's opinion, bin Laden's success will be limited.  "Most actions under al-Qaida's inspiration are carried out by independent cells that will now, in the wake of Zarqawi's death, need to think very carefully about the chances of their success.  On the one hand, his personal example will continue to be a source of inspiration.  On the other hand, his elimination will constitute a warning sign for potential terrorists."

As for Jordan 's attitude, and that of his family, toward Zarqawi's death, the University of Haifa scholar thinks the Jordanians will make every effort to prevent a cult from building up around the Zarqawi image.  "His family informed everyone a number of weeks ago that it was 'vomiting' him out of their system," Baram recalled.

"It is not at all certain, therefore, that a memorial tent will be put up to mourn his memory," Baram believes.  "But in the event that one is set up, it will serve the extremists in the country."

The Israeli historian stresses that Zarqawi's death will be received differently in Jordan .  There are those who will be happy, because he had been responsible for many murders of innocent Jordanian citizens.  But there are also those, his radical Islamic followers, who will cry for him and try to use his memory to increase terror in Jordan , Baram said

 A.M. Goldstein is the English language editor for the University of Haifa's Department of External Affairs.