2005-07-11-Peace Dividends

By Ira Sharkansky

Peace pays. During the recent months of relative quiet, both the Israeli and Palestinian economies have shown significant signs of improvement. There is more foreign investment, increased employment, and positive moves on the stock exchanges. The principal Tel Aviv exchange index has increased by about 180 percent since the period of greatest violence in March-April, 2002. During the same period, the index for the much smaller Nablus exchange has done even better: increasing by 450 percent. Overseas tourists are crowding the Old City of Jerusalem and even getting to Bethlehem. Parallel to these signs are Palestinian opinion surveys that show substantial segments of the population supporting continued quiet. Surveys of Muslim media show articles critical of violence, and seeking a way out of a culture that is parochial and hateful of outsiders.

(For Palestinian public opinion surveys, see http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2005/p16a.html, for translations of media from Muslim countries, see www.memritv.org)

We have not yet reached the peace envisioned by Isaiah, when nations beat their swords into plowshares and the wolf will live with the lamb. (Isaiah 2:4; 11:6) The media of Muslim countries continues to include barbaric examples of anti-Semitism. Only two-thirds of Palestinian opinion favors continued cessation of the armed struggle while almost two-thirds opposes disarming the various bands of fighters. Substantial majorities of the Palestinians see their own regime as ridden with corruption, and only a minority feel that their leaders are doing a good job of reform and providing security to the population.

What about London? Not exactly the sound of trumpets at the gates of paradise. Ariel Sharon has urged his ministers not to comment. Both he and Benyamin Netanyahu (who does not know how not to comment) declined to express worry about Tony Blair's comments that unresolved conflicts in the Middle East are among the major causes of terror. Media estimates range between 1.6 and more than 3 million Muslims in the UK, with perhaps one million in the London region. Blair cannot begin a crusade against Islam. A modern regime like Britain (and Israel) has to put the emphasis on improved defense and narrowly targeted pursuit of the villains. Early signs are that the Muslims of Europe are worried about repression. Blair as well as Bush may see some spikes in their polls. The London explosions will not give Israel a free hand in dealing with Palestinians. Israel does not need or want a free hand. It has found a moderate path that is effective in dealing with Palestinian violence.

An Israeli epigram adds to the oft-quoted passage from Isaiah. When the wolf lives with the lamb, we want to be the wolf. Coping with terror is not apocalyptic, but it is not gentle. The decline in violence has not stopped the fence building. Today's headlines are that it is passing through some Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem, and is planned to put some 55,000 Arab Jerusalemites on the other side. You can probably hear the squawks from where you sit. Mahmoud Abbas is threatening an end to the peace process. He does that a couple of times each week, whenever Israel does not give him what he wants now. It may not be easy for Israel to pass through its disengagement from Gaza and part of the West Bank. Iran and Syria are still on the side of instability. Tony Blair will have to find his own solution. I doubt that he expects a sacrifice from us to buy him a few moments of quiet.

Sharkansky is a member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem