2006-01-29-Hamas

By Ira Sharkansky

Confusion reigns. Hamas, Fatah, Israeli politicians, Americans and Europeans are all blathering . Apparently the extent of Hamas' electoral victory came as a surprise, to Hamas as well as to others. The winners were not certain enough of success to plan on what to do the next day and the day after that. The closest to the call was what an Israeli intelligence official told a Knesset committee: "I wouldn't fall off my chair if Hamas won a majority."

Hamas spokesmen are sounding conciliatory and extreme. They are claiming that they are pragmatic and are tolerant; that they will implement Muslim law and we will not impose their beliefs on all Palestinians; that they do not pose a threat to Israel or Jews, and there will be no recognition and no negotiation with Israel.

Fatah fighters have been shooting at one another and at Hamas fighters. Fatah street mobs have called for the resignation of all party leaders. Mahmoud Abbas has issued some orders to security forces and claims that he is "commander in chief." It is clear from recent and past actions that the heads of the dozen or so security organizations, and their personnel, decide on their own what to do. Various prominent Fatah activists have called on Abbas to resign as president. He continues in office, and has asked Hamas to select a prime minister and form a government.

The Syrian president congratulated Hamas on its victory as a stance of resistence against occupation. The Iranians seem happy, but elsewhere in the region the success of an Islamic movement has brought a lot of official silence. The head of the Arab League said that Hamas will have to deal with Israel.

Early afternoon one Israeli minister said that Hamas was showing commendable caution and that Israel should make the initial transfer of customs duties collected for Palestine, but then the government decided to wait and see about the transfer. The acting prime minister's stance, taken as government policy for now, is that Israel will have no contacts with Hamas until it renounces terror, recognizes Israel, and agrees to uphold previous Palestinian agreements, including the disarming of terrorist organizations (itself?). Yet a few minutes before hearing that, we saw pictures of smiling Hamas leaders coming out of a government building in Jerusalem, and were told that they had meetings on coordination with Israeli officials.

Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu is predicting doom and saying that it is all the fault of the Olmert government. He will fix everything, just as he fixed security when he was prime minister and the economy when he was finance minister.

Labor leader Amir Peretz confirms his commitment to social reform and asserts that the Hamas crises should not be used as another excuse to delay action. Yesterday's promises were free schooling from the age of three, free hot lunches for poor kids, and subsidized day care from the age of one.

George Bush said that the United States would not aid a government led by Hamas. He did not commit his government to ending aid for Palestinian organizations. For at least the past year, the United States has not aided the Palestine Authority, due to a lack of reform in its financial procedures (i.e., corruption). But the US has provided $230 million or so to organizations that are ostensibly non-governmental, but dare not do much without approval of the ruling party.

Some European officials have spoken toughly against terror. Others have said that their government aid to the Palestinians will continue. The people should not suffer because there was a free election and Hamas won.

The confusion is not likely to end soon. My guess is that no one anywhere has a clear idea what to do, and each is waiting to respond to someone else. If the first move is that of Hamas, they do not seem ready.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem