2006-03-04-The effect of Hamas |
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jewishsightseeing.com, March 4, 2006 |
By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM--Is it possible that
the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian election was the best
thing to happen for Israel since 1948?
You bet.
It is more desirable to have an extremist opponent
than a moderate with whom one must deal. It is possible to ignore
the extremist and go one's own way. It may be as if the
Palestinians suddenly disappeared, and no longer present a
political challenge to Israel's capacity to live in relative
safety.
Of course, there is a down side. We can expect a
continuation of terror, sponsored or supported by international
powers like Iran, Syria, and maybe South Africa. However, Israel's
acquisition of defense learning during the five and one-half years
of Intafada is likely to give it the capacity to limit the damage
to something significantly less than that associated with traffic
accidents, or murders in New York City. In other words, it can be
like the detritus associated with urban living.
Early signs are that Hamas will live up to the role
associated with unreformed extremists. It is not willing to
discuss reform of its antediluvian covenant, which assigns all the
bad moments in 100 years of world history to Zionists. It is not
willing to recognize Israel, or to engage in a dialog with Israel.
It is willing to discuss Israel with third parties, like the
United States. That will not get the Hamasniks very far. It has
been a long time since Israel was such a pariah that it had to sit
outside the room where deals were hammered out for its acceptance.
Israel is moving as if Hamas—and by extension the
Palestinians—do not exist. The barrier continues to be built,
despite occasional delays by decisions of Israeli courts.
Palestinian protests, joined by self-styled Israeli
"anarchists" have resulted only in a few of the
protestors injured by the police and delivered to local hospitals.
Occasional reports of terror attacks planned have led Israel to
close the gates in the barriers around Gaza since mid-February
that transport goods and allow workers to move daily to jobs in
Israel. Some Israeli factories and farmers have lost sales to
Gaza, but Gazan families are not eating as well as they did when
some 5,000 men could come to Israel for day jobs.
No Palestinian "security forces,"
numbering at least 30,000 in Gaza alone, have sought to disturb
the few hundred Palestinians who make and fire rockets toward
Israel. Recently they have not done any damage, so the IDF is
willing to continue its side of a game and shell the empty area
from which the rockets are fired. Once a rocket lands too close to
an Israeli, that game is likely to change. A few Palestinians may
learn what it is like to wonder if there is a missile or artillery
shell likely to fall in one's neighborhood.
What will happen to the Palestinian population led
by an intransigent Hamas? That will be their problem. Once the
barrier is complete, there may be little movement between
Palestine and Israel, and that will be tightly controlled.
Activists will bleat about the injustice, but the postures adhered
to by Hamas will be all the defense Israel needs in the
enlightened capitals. Palestinians will find allies among
extremist Muslim countries and some third world countries, but
most of them will be even further into the international corner
reserved for pariahs than Israel. Early signs are that support for
Hamas will be weak, at best, among the likes of Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, and other Muslim states troubled by their own
Islamic extremists.
Note the conditional expressions throughout this
letter. It will all depend on how extremist Hamas remains. If
things continue as they are, it will lead the Palestinians deeper
toward the stone age in terms of education, economic opportunity,
sexual equality, humane laws, medical care, and all the other
modern goodies. It will not be entirely pleasant to have a Taliban
quality regime a few hundred meters from many Israeli homes,
including ours. But the balance of power is likely to be awesomely
in our favor.
Can Hamas change? Perhaps. But it would be as
momentous as the claim that the Prophet has altered the Koran. Or
that the sun has risen in the West.
Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem |
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