2006-07-16-escalating warfare

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM —The fog of war is a platitude. A writer aspiring to cleverness should not use it. But it is suitable to the lack of clarity apparent to a civilian, and perhaps to some of those with real power.

What is clear is not pretty. Israel has gone a long way toward destroying Gaza and Lebanon; and is not finished. Israelis are also suffering, especially those within range of the moderately powerful rockets of Hezbollah in the north, and the pitiful efforts of the Palestinians in the south. Just as it is possible to kill with a stone, it is possible to kill with one of those homemade items, assuming it makes it out of the launching area and lands close to a building or a person.

Right now I'm listening to a speech by the Hezbollah leader, who claims that his group is only targeting military facilities. Among his successes were a 55 year old grandmother and her 7 year old grandson, who didn't happen to be in uniform at the time; and 8 mechanics working at the railroad repair barn in Haifa. The great leader himself is likely to be speaking from a bunker deep under what used to be a nine storey headquarters building. I would not pay for the renewal of his life insurance. Yet it will not be easy. The theology, rituals, and ideology of Shiites glorify suffering. They make great suicide bombers and tough fighters.

Equally bizarre was listening to a CNN news reader questioning an IDF spokesman. Her style reminded me of watching Joe McCarthy in the 1950s. How could Israel dare kill Lebanese? Aren't you using grossly disproportionate power against a weak country? The soldier stood his ground despite the barrage that repeated itself time and again. It was not an interview but an inquisition.

Another thing that is clear to us, and perhaps a surprise to our enemies, is that the Israeli government began its attack on Lebanon recognizing the likelihood of paying a price in the loss of lives and resources. The signs are that the public continues to support the decision, including those in the north told to stay close to shelters. The goal is to wreak havoc with the organization and facilities of Hezbollah, move them out of missile range from the Israeli border, and not let them return.

What is happening to Lebanon is its fault. The government remains afraid of using a 70,000 man army against the 3,000 fighters of Hezbollah. Likewise, Mahmoud Abbas was unable to use the 30,000 security personnel he claimed to control in Gaza against the couple of hundred men who made and fired the crude missiles against Israel. Leaders like that do not deserve a country; and they are losing the countries they claimed to be leading.

Still obscured by the fog is what is coming next. Most of Lebanon is still standing, and Israel can continue to destroy pieces of it. The results are ever closer to the destruction that was produced by its internal war and the Israeli invasions that reached a peak in the 1980s. Insofar as many Lebanese are blaming the Shiites of Hezbollah for their losses, we might see another round of the on-and-off civil war. The Shiites are not the only ones in that miserable country who know how to fight. Sabra and Shatila were not exceptions in their history. Lebanese like to kill one another.

Also somewhere in the fog are Syria and Iran. Both are having their reputations bruised. They miscalculated if they thought that stirring Hamas and Hezbollah would lessen the pressure of the United States and others on them for aiding the mayhem in Iraq and continuing to develop nuclear weapons. The destruction of Lebanon can spill over to both places. A recent Arab summit collapsed over the weekend, revealing that not a few of their usual allies are pissed big at what they have done. And that may not be not the worst of it for them.

Sharkansky is an emeritus member of the political science department at Hebrew University in Jerusalem