SAN DIEGO —Often politics of a country are influenced by the personality of its leader. It is certainly the case in Israel today, as its citizens are facing the next elections for their Knesset (parliament).

Although Gen. Ariel Sharon is lying in a coma in Jerusalem hospital, he will be on the minds of many Israeli electors as they approach the voting booths with their respective ballots.

Thus, an analysis of the current political perspective in Israel is both appropriate and timely.

It may seem longer but it was only a few months ago that Sharon inaugurated a new party, "Kadima." His resignation from the "Likud" was neither surprising nor earth shaking. Rather, it was a tactical sequence for a man who had never championed party discipline or ideological steadfastness.

Initially, in his early career as general of the Israeli army, Sharon was known t ignore orders from his superiors, often resulting in both costly errors and historic achievements. It was due to these unpredictable characteristics of unreliability and excessive ego inflammations that Sharon was bypassed by the military for the post of Chief of Staff at the time.

In turn, offended by the slur of his colleagues and the then ruling Labor party, Sharon discarded his uniform to create a political party of his own.  It was called "Schlom Zion."  Realizing for the first time that there can be no success in politics without political support from allies, Sharon was quick to join one of the opposition parties, the General Zionists, who were starved for leaders and leadership.

Using the General Zionists as his base, Sharon proceeded to cajole Menachem Begin, the prominent leader of opposition and head of the "Herut" party of Israel into a political alliance.  Thus, "Gahal" was created.

Although increasing their joint numerical strength in the Knesset, "Gahal" was unable to surpass the Left-dominated coalition of that time. Determined to succeed, Sharon pressed on to help create an even wider coalition, including some minor parties from the right. As a result, the present "Likud" was established.

Finally, under Begin's leadership, the Likud succeeded to win the 1977 elections and to take over the reins of Government.  Sharon, after holding some minor cabinet positions, finally asceneded to the powerful Minister of Defense.

As long as the popular Begin remained at the helm, Sharon played his hand carefully. At no time did he challenge his Prime Minister either personally or ideologically. However, with the passing of Menachem Begin, Sharon began to engineer an eventual take over of the Party's reigns.

In the meantime, after Benjamin Netanyahu's one term premiership, the Israeli electorate decided to try "peace at all costs" by electing Gen.Ehud Barak of the Labor Party as the new Prime Minister.

The emphatic collapse of his policy of appeasement led to Barak's dismissal. As a reaction to Yasser Arafat's betrayal of the "peace process' and the eruption of the intifada, Sharon became the reactionary choice to lead the country in defense of terrorist aggression.  These were the days of glory for Ariel Sharon.

Having experienced popularity and another election victory, Sharon became afflicted with the syndrome of invincibility.

Ignoring his own party, the settlers, (many of whom were his creation) as well as the religious element of the country, Ariel Sharon devised a plan of "separation" wherein Israel would abandon Gaza and some of the areas in Shomron on the west bank of the Jordan, build a wall separating Israelis from the Palestinians, and only then conduct negotiations with the newly formed Palestinian leadership, on how to continue living in peace and prosperity.

The Likud was not buying this program of action. The Left, on the other hand, was happy to accept it as a steppingstone to further concessions, which they were proposing to offer to the Palestinians: all settlements on the "west bank," and a significant part of Jerusalem—the ancient and current capital city.

Of course, all of the above occurred prior to the tragedy of Sharon's heart attack.  However, politically. little has changed to necessitate any serious revisions of the political situation. 

Presently, two factors will stand to neutralize each other. One is the emotional support for the stricken and highly respected former prime minister. The other is the sudden elevation of the Hamas terrorists to the position of dominance among the Palestinian Arabs.

Whereas Sharon's disengagement initiative may gain Ehud Olmert the support of a portion of Israel's electorate during the upcoming elections, his lack of Sharon's security credentials may become an asset to Benjamin Netanyahu, who is clearly fighting the elections from behind.

In March 2006 the parties vying for leadership will include Sharon's Kadima, Netanyahu's Likud, Labor, Meretz, the Religious parties, and the fringes on both the left and the right.

It is not impossible to imagine that a significant portion of the electorate will tend to bow to sentiment and follow Kadima in another outburst of hope of achieving peace and tranquility.  However, there is no likelihood that this initial success will give Olmert and Shimon Peres enough votes to form a new government. They will be forced to find partners to join them in their efforts to resurrect a policy of appeasement and attempt to reach renewed understanding with their Palestinian negotiators.  This will be a difficult task.

Those in the Likud and in the Labor party who will be supporting the newfound party of Sharon (or rather, Olmert and Peres), will join them from the beginning. They will no longer maintain any influence within the parties they have deserted. The remaining membership of both Likud and Labor will battle the newly formed party from becoming the next government with all their collective power. For this is the way of politics: you challenge rather than support your opponent. Likewise, the religious parties as well as the immigrant supporters of Natan Sharansky, who left Sharon's coalition of yesterday because of its readiness to default on Biblical Land, will certainly not be prepared to join the Olmert/ Peres coalition.

Thus, in spite of initial success, it is not likely that Kadima will be in a position to establish a vibrant coalition that will be capable of garnering a majority of votes in the new (to be elected) Knesset.

The chances for a long term success of the new party are even less promising.  As in the past, Israel will soon discard these political mavericks, who will disappear into the same wilderness as that previously inhabited by all others who left their nests to build new ones, including such giants as David Ben Gurion.

It will eventually be a pity to see such talents as Peres and Olmert disappear into the unknown. Each one of them served their country well during Israel's days of hardship and struggle.

As far as Israel in concerned, the new realignment of political forces will have no long-term consequences.  Peace or war will be determined by the Palestinians.  As long as they are not comfortable with Israel in the area, there can be no peace.

The only solution to the problem is U.S. President George W. Bush's concept of democratization of the Middle East.  In the meantime, Israel must maintain not only its power, but also its resolve. Appeasement is an enemy of both.

Editor's Note: Ya'acov Liberman served as general secretary of the Herut party under Menachem Begin.  He now lives in retirement in San Diego and is author of the forthcoming book, "Tears of Zion: Divided We Stand"