SAN DIEGO —These are the results of elections to the Knesset:   Kadima                          29 Members Labor                            19 Members Shas                              12 Members Likud                             12 Members Yisrael Beitenu               11 Members NRP (religious)                9 Members GIL(new party for            7 Members    social reform) UTJ (religious)                  6 Members Meretz                             5 Members Arab Parties                 10 Members   Total                             120 Members   The above listed results to the recently held elections in Israel spurred many a pundit to voice their jerk-reflexes and paint personal opinions based on their inconclusive and often erroneous findings.  This exercise in frustrated ignorance gave birth to far-reaching conclusions ranging from a prognosis of a political "tsunami" to isolationism on one hand, and appeasement on the other.   Although some of these prognoses are interesting and colorful, none are realistic in terms of Israel's future.   Possibly, the best way to visualize this future is to glance back and learn from the recent past  because the past will always remain an integral part of our historic existence.   Zionism, from early days of Dr. Theodore Herzll, was dominated by the leftist ideology as inspired by Marx, cultivated by Lenin and glorified by the Bund.  Indeed, the early Labor Zionists found it appropriate to dilute the goal of Statehood with that of "socialism in our time"...   With all the twists and turns of the tragic 20th century, Zionism began the process of shredding its affiliation with socio-leftism and slowly adopting the new political trend of all other disillusioned communists, namely—the counterfeit liberalism of today.   For America to understand the present trend in Zionism, we should compare the existing political parties in Israel with those in the United States.  To begin with, we must understand that the American two-party system predetermines that  the two existing political parties will more or less achieve parity in spite of fluctuations in their respective public support.   The Democratoc and the Republican parties in America span the entire range of Israel's political divisions. if Israel would have favored the American system of government, the Democratic Party would have included Labor, Shas, GIL, Meretz and the support from the Israeli Arab population.  The Republican Party, on the other hand, would have included Ysrael Beitenu (Liberman's party of Russian immigrants), Likud, NRP and UTJ.   Thus, based on the current elections held in Israel, the "Democrats" would have 44 out of 120 members of the Knesset, while the "Republicans" would have 38.  To this list we must add at least half of Kadima's elected parliamentarians (as their list was divided nearly evenly between  former Likudniks and former members of Labor) to the "Republican" column and half to the "Democrats".  The above figures total to 58 seats for the "Democrats" and 52 for the "Republicans," with 10 Arab seats (votes) on the ready to weigh in for the "Democratic Party" when push came to shove.   In the final analysis we should assume that "Kadima," based on the support of all "Democrats" as defined in the above paragraphs, will be in a position to form a rather shaky coalition government, which, to a large extent will depend on the ten Arab votes in the Knesset.   On the other hand, we must not forget that the Israeli political system is a multi-party conglomerate rather than a two-party political system.  Thus, anything is possible, including a standstill that may necessitate new elections.  More likely, new elections will follow a year or two of trials and errors.  They probably will take place before the term of the government-to-be expires.   However, strange as it may seem, the future of Israel's politics is easier to foresee than its immediate present.  It will revolve around  the gradual disintegration of "Kadima," which claims to be a party of the center but which, in reality, is composed of an unorthodox coalition of the Left, the Right, the pragmatists and the dreamers.  The party embraces a multitude of ideologies but lacks one single goal.  This is a party with an ambition to unite opposing ideals but lacks the glue to keep them together.   Under the circumstances, "Kadima" is destined to follow the road leading to a dead-end.  It is a similar road once taken by Ben Gurion and his "Rafi", as well as by Yigal Yadin and his "Democrats for Change".  Both created serious shock waves before disappearing into political wilderness.   The day will come when the so-called moderates and centrists within "Kadima" will be unable to accept the pull of the rightists or the leftists within their ranks.  With nowhere to go they will eventually disintegrate.  Without them, Kadima will have no license for existence. The Left and the Right elements of "Kadima" will experience  months of frustrations because they cannot speak in a single voice. Ultimately, "Kadima's" left wingers as well as the right wingers will be inclined to rejoin their former ideological bases and re-attempt to influence them from within.   When this very likely scenario takes place, it will generate a modest move towards moderation and centralization, within both Likud and the Labor, leaving their respective extreme wings to join the more radical political frameworks on both the Left and the Right.   Enemies of Israel should find no reason to rejoice at the present predicament as created by the recent elections.   When the sky grow darker and Israel's future is at stake, there will be only 14 Knesset members that will not toe the line of patriotism:  "Meretz" and the Arabs.  The other 106 will stand up as one and lead the State of Israel to security, prosperity and eventual peace.  Indeed Herzl's political Zionism is very much alive and well!  Editor's Note: Ya'acov Liberman served as general secretary of the Herut party under Menachem Begin.  He now lives in retirement in San Diego and is author of the forthcoming book, "Tears of Zion: Divided We Stand"