Volume 3, Number 177
 
'There's a Jewish story everywhere'
 



Sunday-Monday, August 30-31, 2009

LETTER FROM JERUSALEM

Mired in Afghanistan, U.S. may find Mideast even tougher

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—I have opposed those claiming that Barack Obama is a Muslim, anti-Semite, and not a "natural born citizen" qualified to be president. I have been impressed with a decent effort he has made--along with George W. Bush--to deal with an economic melt-down, and have applauded his concern to improve the western world's least caring ways of providing the benefits of medicine.

However, I do wonder if he is among those still believing that the world is flat.

My greatest concern for his wisdom comes from Afghanistan. Not only is he sticking with his predecessor's mad efforts to remake that pathetic place, but he is sending even more troops to what seems destined to be their personal misery and his own embarrassment.

My memories of Afghanistan are dated, but gain reinforcement from what I read. I remain impressed with the young man who wanted to ride a bus to America. The carts pulled by animals in nearby Uzbekistan were, in Afghanistan, pulled by men.

Current media reports are of senior American officials troubled by vote stealing in the recent election, and by key members of the Afghan government deeply involved in the opium economy .

Israelis use the expression "Discovering America" for someone who expresses something that everyone should know.

Americans are discovering America in Afghanistan.

Soldiers and junior officers struggle in small units. Villagers they are supposed to be helping look upon them with suspicion. Regional authorities either have no resources to do their part of programs meant to be cooperative, or do not care to help the Americans.

A new battlefield manual wrestles with the problems of soldiers unable to know if the people they are working with are friends or enemies.

It is tempting to compare Afghanistan with Vietnam. The Communism of the Vietcong was not the Islam of Taliban. Afghanistan's battles are in desert and mountains rather than jungle. Afghanistan is more diverse ethnically and even less united politically than South Vietnam.

The South Vietnam regime may have had greater control over its territory and a more effective army. Ultimately, however, it collapsed from within despite more than a decade of American efforts to prop it up politically, reject and select political leaders who seemed most competent and least

corrupt, train its officials and its military. The American investment in Afghanistan is a long way from the half a million troops who operated at the peak in Vietnam, and the cost so far only a fraction of the 55,000 Americans killed.

What is similar is a protracted war in a place poorly understood by the American administration. Both South

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Vietnam and Afghanistan were/are marked by corruption throughout their politics and administration, and populations apathetic or opposed to what the Americans were/are offering.

The corruption and apathy made South Vietnam a passive recipient of American involvement. It was the place where the Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon administrations battled the expansion of Communism, and cared only secondarily for the Vietnamese. Americans may be no more concerned about the welfare of the Afghans. That country is the place where the United States is fighting radical Islam. 9-11 came from Afghanistan, and is the reason for Americans' activity.

There are implications in all of this for Israel.

Israel is not Afghanistan or South Vietnam. It is a orderly, reasonably united and disciplined society, with a democratic regime, decent administration and independent judiciary, a competent military, and corruption no worse than in other western societies.

It is also on the agenda of the American administration, more so than in recent years.

From here, the American administration appears to be arrogant and naive in its commitment to a process for Israel, Palestine, and the Middle East. American efforts have credibility only in left of center circles whose marginality has been demonstrated in the most recent three national elections.

Just last evening the news featured a moderate and respected member of the current government who expressed his support for a two-state solution, but his doubts that it would be possible. His analysis is widely shared. Neither the Palestinians nor their Arab allies are ready to accept Israel as a permanent fixture in the Middle East. That appears in the Palestinians' insistence on the deal breaking return of refugees and their families to Israel, and the refusal of Mahmoud Abbas to view as credible the far reaching suggestions made by Ehud Olmert. The present government is unlikely to repeat Olmert's offer.

What unites Obama's view of Afghanistan and the Middle East is a major disconnect from reality. The world may look flat from Washington, with deal making for America also useful elsewhere.

Israel's government cannot say a simple "No" to the United States, or to its chorus of supporters among Western European governments. It can say "Not yet," or "Not exactly as you demand." Israel's administration operates according to law and hierarchy, but not completely. No matter what the center decides, there will not be uniform compliance down below. Here and there will be new settlement construction, and illegal clusters of trailers put on hilltops. Adversaries may say this is Jewish duplicity. Just as likely it will be a lack of administrative unity. Israel is no more a model of Prussian discipline than the United States.

Even Washington is more complex than the president would like. His concern for health care may be admirable, but is not a done deal. What emerges from Congress will not be what he proposed.

Can anyone hope for greater achievements in Afghanistan or Israel/Palestine than the president will get from Congress?

Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. Email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il


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