Volume 3, Number xxx
 
'There's a Jewish story everywhere'
 


Thursday-Monday, September 24-28, 2009

LETTER FROM JERUSALEM

The many defeats and frustrations of President Obama


By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—It is hard to envy the president of the United States.

The New York Times describes his party colleagues in the Senate fighting among themselves over different ways of dealing with drug companies. That is one of numerous details in the way of the president's landmark effort to bring the world's best medical care to more citizens.

Another article in the same issue details radically different policies being considered for Afghanistan. The paper describes the war as an "intractable eight-year conflict that is not going well" and says the president is "wary of becoming trapped in an overseas quagmire."

It is not possible to know from the article if military and foreign policy advisors are confident of the options being promoted in the White House, or if they are scrambling for something new that might prevent the political disaster of admitting error and leaving Afghanistan to the Afghans.

Another article deals with the aftermath of the president's defeat at the hands of Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab governments, none of whom gave him want he wanted in order to move forward peace negotiations.

The article notes the demands, some of them shrill, that had been directed by the White House and the State Department to the parties. At the photo op with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian head Mahmoud Abbas, the president was not issuing orders. Now he is saying, "despite all the obstacles, all the history, all the mistrust, we have to find a way forward.”

The same article notes the president's lack of success in getting China's cooperation in pressuring Iran to give up its nuclear program. It could have discussed the lack of cooperation from Russia and Germany in the same paragraph.

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These efforts are important in themselves, and would add to the levers that Obama could use to induce Israel to be more forthcoming with respect to the Palestinians. With the Iranians working toward a nuclear weapon, denying the Holocaust, and describing Israel as an illegal country that must be replaced--and no indication that the international community is doing anything about it--Netanyahu's government has little incentive to risk domestic problems by being flexible on settlements.

One idea currently circulating in the White House is to skip the preliminaries about what Israelis and Palestinians want to negotiate, and get right to the issues that Americans think are important. The president sounded confident when he said, “Permanent status negotiations must begin and begin soon.”

Israelis and Palestinians have discussed just about everything, with no results that are apparent. The most difficult issues are the Palestinians' demands for rights of refugees and their families, the future of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, the boundaries of Israel and Palestine, and control over the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary. Each may be a deal breaker.

Somewhere down the list are problems about sharing water, and travel possibilities between the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas' control of Gaza may be another deal breaker.

Jerusalem is either a deal breaker or fungible. Netanyahu and colleagues in the government proclaim their opposition to dividing the city. It may be possible to find an accommodation for Palestinian desires in part of Jerusalem if all other issues are solvable. Nothing will be easy. It may be impossible, given the competition between Palestinian and other Arab politicians, each concerned to be appropriately insistent about Muslim rights and Israeli guilt.

President Obama began his term with wide enthusiasm in many parts of the world. Currently his support in Israel is somewhere in the single digits. He can only go upward, but it will be a steep climb. He has put himself in a deep hole.

Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. Email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il


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