Volume 3, Number 200
 
'There's a Jewish story everywhere'
 



Thursday-Saturday, October 29-31, 2009

LETTER FROM JERUSALEM


'Action or deliberation?' is eternal question in world affairs

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM—"The power to tax is not the power to destroy, while this court sits."

"The Messiah will come in his own time."

The first of these expressions comes from Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, in defense of the government's power to levy a tax. He wrote that the tax at question did not pose an imminent threat of destruction. As long as the Supreme Court existed, it could intervene when the taxing power actually did threaten the economy. Panhandle Oil Co. v. Mississippi ex rel. Knox 277 U.S. 233 (1928).

The second expression comes from Jewish tradition. It implies that the Messiah will arrive only when God wills it. The faithful pray for an early arrival. A popular song expressed skepticism; "The messiah doesn't come, neither does he phone."

Both expressions argue against the facile idea of the "slippery slope," used by those who fear that an action portends subsequent events leading to disaster, which can only be prevented by acting now.

There is no end to the conflict between those who demand action, and those who counsel patience and deliberation. Neither is there a simple formula for determining what to do. A middle course is to try something small, which does not commit oneself to a major action of unknown cost. A middle course will test the situation; an adversary's response will show if it is necessary to invest more heavily in order to preempt something worse. There is also the threat of action. Strong words may lead an opponent to change plans.

Recent events provide examples of rushing the Messiah, with doubtful results, and patience, also with doubtful results.

George W. Bush rushed the Messiah in Iraq, against the advice of European allies who felt economic sanctions were working against Saddam Hussein. Six years later, pessimistic estimates are that as many or more Iraqis have died as a result of the American-led invasion than died as a result of Saddam. Pessimists also see no signs of an orderly, stable Iraq. However, there are no serious demands to hold the United States accountable for the bloodshed.





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Israel waited through seven years and thousands of rockets fired against its civilians before acting for a period of three weeks in Gaza. The casualties were a fraction of those associated with the American attack on Iraq. Gaza has ceased its rocket attacks on Israel, but international seekers of justice demand that Israel be brought to court.

It may help to keep the peace when adversaries do not know how far a nation will go in asserting itself. The distance to the slippery slope is never clear. Only in retrospect may it be evident that a country or a leader was intent on doing great harm, and might have been restrained.

International politics is a crap shoot. Terrible things can happen because those with power are reluctant to use it to prevent the bad, or use their power badly. Woe to us who cannot enjoy the quiet of Norway or New Zealand: far from violence and with sufficient resources to support a decent standard of living.

The excessive use of force, even in behalf of self defense, may produce more harm than it prevents.

Uncertainty is the prevailing theme. It makes us peace lovers uncomfortable, but it also makes our adversaries uncomfortable.

Among the unresolved issues we have to tolerate this week are:

Will the great powers succeed in stopping, or at least delaying whatever plans Iran has of acquiring nuclear weapons?

Will Israel tire of the tension, and act unilaterally against a country that has explicitly threatened its destruction?

If so, what will happen as a result?

At a lower level of awe are the occasional rockets landing in Israel from Lebanon. Most recently, the IDF fired a few artillery salvos in response to a rocket that landed in an empty field. Israel has tolerated Hizbollah's rearmament, and no international force will act to prevent it. So far the threat of massive retaliation has kept the northern border more quiet than in the past.

It is terrible that a regime like North Korea has nuclear weapons, and that a regime like Iran may acquire them. For Israelis, it is a blessing that it appears to possess nuclear weapons. We do not know that for certain, and we do not know what kinds or quantities of delivery are somewhere under the ground or under the sea. It helps that our adversaries also do not know for certain.

The example of North Korea indicates that others do not press too hard against a regime that may go crazy and bite as hard as it can. The same bite also works for Israel.

Not expecting a Messiah in the near future, we must go on living with uncertainty, and force the same unpleasantness on those who threaten to destroy us.



Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. Email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il


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